Wednesday, January 2, 2008

Update

As many of you know from the international news, things are really heating up in Kenya around the Kenyan election. While I am far from an expert on the history of Kenyan politics, the political climate of Kenya has played a huge role in our experience in Kenya. So...bear with me, grant me the grace to share my skewed perceptions as an outsider and learn something along the way...and know all along that we are safe.


Democracy is relatively new to Kenya. While there has been a history of a so-called democracy, it wasn't until 2002 that the a pre-democracy ruler was dethroned. In 2002, President Mwai Kibaki was elected to take the presidential position, a big deal as it required the former president to step down, to succumb to his loss and to pass on the torch. The people of Kenya described the election as a big step toward democracy. Many people grounded their votes in issues, rather than the “good old boys” politics from the past and found ways to vote across tribal lines.


A word on tribalism in Kenya. Like any other “ism” out there, the root of the problem is founded in a lack of historical justice that plays into modern tension. While the Brits can't claim to make up one of the modern tribes in Kenya, they are likely to be the perpetrators or intensifiers of modern day Kenyan tribalism. Toward the end of their colonial rule, there were certain tribes that were built up, others repeatedly exploited and still others that constantly rose to the occasion to take down European power in hopes of becoming a free nation.


Since independence, Kenya has slowly moved toward a democratic society. Many of the barriers in moving toward independence are rooted in the complexity of making a free nation out of 43 different tribes. You might ask how tribes are defined...well most Kenyans can tell which tribe others are from based their facial complexion and temperament as well as names and the part of the country that they are from. Historically, when people lived in rural areas, there were few reasons for members of a community to have much interaction with any other tribe. Modern urbanization has brought members of all tribal communities to the city, where in many cases-they work together, worship together, even marry eachother. Beneath the surface, a culture of standing up for your own tribe and supporting it at all costs is a guiding light in Kenyan culture. Regardless on who is in power, they are said to boost the agenda of their people rather than caring for the needs of Kenya. Recently, The central province has benefited from far more economic improvements than other parts of Kenya and Kikuyu-run businesses and appointed political seats have been Kikuyu-heavy in comparison to the other tribes.


The largest tribe (Kikuyu), which makes up approximately 25% of the Kenya's 40 million people has a strong history of influencing government policy with influential leaders and a large stake in economic communities. While many Kikuyu's attribute their success in Kenyan society to hard work and wise decision making, others argue that members of the Kikuyu tribe have been favored by government policy, resource allocation and appointment to leadership positions over the years. While Daniel Moi, leader of Kenya for 27 years was not a Kikuyu, many felt that those in his inner circle unfairly favored Kikuyu segments of the population. Mwai Kibaki, Kenya's president from 2002-2007 is a Kikuyu, while his opposition, Raila Odinga (Luo tribe) and Musyoka Kalonzo (Luya tribe) thus creating a heated environment for the 2007 elections.


While tribalism is a scapegoat for much sentiment, many tribes feel that their region has been shorted because of a lack of infrastructure as well as the firing of many of the officials that had been elected and consequently replacing them with their own tribe. Some of the tribal tension could comes back to regionalism in a fight for equitable distribution support and resources and other comes back to a resistance to the tribe in power.


In Nairobi, this tension not only exists in the government and large businesses, but also in the slums. Some call them gangs while others call them a version of a mob representing tribal differences. The Kikuyu-founded mungiki is known for their involvement in the matatu industry and regulating housing in the slums by charging non-rental fees and regulating which people live where. The Taliban (no relation to the other Taliban) is an opposition gang/mob that works to regulate the Kikuyu and fight for land reform. I haven't quite gotten my head around the Taliban yet, but I think that they are primarily Luo, (which is the tribe of the opposition running for president) and provide a backing for people in the slums that are being exploited by those that are powerful.



This segmented background brings us to Devember 27, when the elections were held in Kenya. With democracy relatively new in Kenya, people are very interested in politics. Probably 70% of the evening news is about politics, the newspapers are full of stories about the elections and the buzz when walking down the street or sitting in a matatu is centered around the December 27. Each citizen claims to be an expert on the candidates, unfortunately mostly rooted in tribal connections, economic incentives,etc. Each of the candidates held several large rallies all over the country in which they paid citizens $5-$15 to come and support them. The pre-election poles fluctuated quite a bit in the two months prior to the actual election, but Raila (the opposition party) held a lead throughout. Although Kibaki closed in at one point, the most recent polls had Odinga leading by 12%. December 27 marked the election of the president, 210 MP's and commissioners. The major parties represented are the Party of National Unity (PNU), the Orange Democratic Movement (ODM named after a referendum vote...the two sides were called the bananas and the oranges) and the Orange Democratic Movement of Kenya (ODM-K). The majority of those running for president, MP and commissioners fit into these parties. The streets, matatus, hotels (restaurants) were humming with political rhetoric. With very few incidents, people participated in a way that honored the democratic process.


December 27- was a peaceful day. International monitoring agencies applauded the work of the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) for their work and praised 9 million + citizens for voting peacefully. The pace in the city was dramatically slower as people were either away voting in their rural villages, at the polling station or huddled around a TV or radio inside of their house. There is no such thing as an absentee ballot, so regardless of where you currently live, you must return to the place that you are registered in order to cast your votes. There were a few skirmishes at polling stations, a few people whose voting cards were not found immediately (including the ODM presidential candidate:)), but all in all, it was a smooth and peaceful day. There are 210 different constituencies throughout the country in which representatives from both parties, a neural electoral commission and foreign representatives tally and provide results to the commissioning board in Nairobi to tally the collective constituency results. Each party delegates agents to the constituencies to monitor counting. Each of the party representatives sign off on a form with the end final tally for a given area and make a copy before the commission brings the results to head commission in Nairobi.


For the most part, December 28 remained peaceful as well. Throughout the day, there was tension building because the ECK was not producing results quick enough. By the end of the day, less than 30% of the votes had been counted.


Waking up on Saturday the 29th, I expected to know the winner of the presidential election. Only 40% of the votes had been counted and Raila (the opposition-ODM) had a commanding 55% to 35% lead over Kibaki (the current PNU president) at this time. I went for a run to find people clumped on the streets talking, no matatus out and lots of police and military members along the road. While the election officials were quick to announce the winners of the MP and commissioner positions in each district, the presidential results were still a mystery. As the day went on, tension increased more and more. The news reported violence, looting and several deaths in the western province where Raila is from and there were reports of significant violence in Kibera and Mathare as people begged for answers.


It is interesting to think how relative emotions are as Sunday the 30th manifested more politically-charged emotions than I have ever experienced. The day started out peaceful. We went to a nearby grocery store to get toilet paper to find a huge mass of people outside. They regulated the number of people that could be let in for fear of being looted. We stopped by the roadside kiosks on the way back where the owner raised prices of toilet paper from 15 shillings to 25, not sure of when he would next have access to any goods. People were frustrated, anxious and seeking answers-but all in all, they remained calm. There were several press conferences throughout the day noting toll tampering, a theory that had built a very strong case at this point. At approximately 5:00 PM, the Electoral Commission of Kenya had announced Mwai Kibaki (the current president) as the winner over Raila Odinga (the opposition party). Within 30 minutes, Kibaki was sworn in to office for a second term. I went up to the patio on the roof of Gideon's home to get a bit of fresh air and to decompress after a day that clearly revealed some dissimilarities. Within minutes, the fires were ignited, gunshots fired and a hum of screaming, yelling and chanting filled the nearby Kibera streets. I can't even fathom what it would be like for all of the innocent people trying to live another day and being stuck in the midst of chaos. The sunset that night was filtered by smoke from burning tires, vehicles, homes and shops. 20 minutes later, the government stopped all live coverage of the news. Part of me understood the need to block viewers from perpetuating the violence, but it also gives the government one more advantage in dictating the emotions and information viewed by the Kenyan People.


I woke Monday, December 31 to gun shots. Although in the distance, there were many of them. I have learned that in many cases, police shoot into the air in order to scare people away. Many of the shots fired were followed by different gun sounds, evidence of bullets being exchanged. Sheth, one of the pastor's in our network was outside the gate with a friend, wanting to come in. I went down and talked to him...he looked physically and emotionally exhausted. He asked if his children could come and stay with us for the day as they are feeling traumatized at their home in Kibera. We gladly invited his family in. Minutes later, he left to tend to the needs of members of his Kibera-based congregation and said that his wife would arrive shortly to bring the kids over.


Minutes later, 20+ men came running by our home. I quickly learned that these are the shop owners of the kiosks that we walk past every day, that we buy from and have become fond of. They return within minutes with rocks, sticks and machetes to guard their shops. A loud hum of screaming filled the kiosk lined streets as people break out of Kibera toward town, where they want to confront the ECK and police. The owners return in a dead sprint away from the mass of people and disappear for 5 minutes. But...they return-this time with two armed police officers. As the turn the corner three houses down out of my site, I heard 4 gun shots, followed by 2 more. To this moment, I have no idea what happened out there...but have come up with my own conclusions.


This is what has made this election personal. I realize that these experiences are specific to me, that others perceive things differently and that many have no vested interest in what is happening here. My lenses have been tweeked over the past few days in how I look at democracy, politics in general and the freedoms that I so often take for granted.


What went wrong:

Many people have asked me who I support in the election. Although many of the people that I talk Kenyan politics with are pro-ODM, I have supported a pro-democracy model rather than picking a side. As a guest of this country, I do not have a strong enough historical context of these leaders and was quite disappointed with all of the candidate's ability to articulate models of how they would deal with the main issues that Kenyans are dealing with, the main being an overwhelming disparity between the rich and the poor.


My pro-democracy interest stemmed from the tribal and economic divisions that dye the fabric of this nation. Like most other developing nations, Kenya runs off of a model in which the national government comprises 95% of governmental influence in areas across the country. Imagine if the US was run solely by the national government. How could those in DC tend to the needs of the Idaho's, Alaska's and New Mexico's of the nation when there are other needs in New York, Chicago and LA? There is a need for some local and state governance to tend to local needs as well as a guarantee that resources and support can be allocated to pressing needs. My story of growing up in Michigan and now living in Washington doesn't fly over here. Unless you are moving to the city for an education or a job, there is communal pressure to stay with your family, land and tribe. This being said, I feel that it is important that all members of the Kenyan society have a chance to vote in a leader that is going to meet their needs given their circumstances in their specific area. Anything less would force Kenyan development to move at different paces in different places.


As a proponent of democracy in this nation, there have been a few things that I have noticed along the way that have led to the failure of democracy over the past week:


  1. There is a rule in the Kenyan Constitution in which the current president can set the date of the election. The election is to be held 60 days after the president dissolves the parliament. This provides an unfair advantage for the incumbent as it allows him (maybe someday Kenya will get to a gender neutral term on this one) to use the poles as an indicator in when they can be most successful in holding the elections. The constitution states that the elections must take place at any time on or prior to December 27 because the incoming president needs to be sworn in by December 30. This leaves a 3 day window for the results to be calculated, announced and for the new president to be sworn in. While it is possible to tabulate 9,000,000 votes in 3 days, it provides minimal room for due process given poor circumstances. Regardless of how far along the electoral commission was in their process on December 30, 2007-they were forced to make an announcement and swear in the president.

  2. The representatives of the Electoral Commission of Kenya (ECK) began tabulating votes in the respective constituencies when the poles had closed on Thursday, December 27 at 6:00 PM. Many of them worked through the night and produced results to the governing commission in Nairobi the following morning. Some of these submitted early were the larger of the 210 constituencies with 90,000+ voters. The ECK made these numbers public. I remember waking up on Saturday Morning to find that 37% of the votes had been counted and Raila had a 55% to 35% lead over Kibaki. I would soon come to find out the Raila's stronghold area results were submitted early and that Kibaki's stronghold areas would not come in until Sunday afternoon-72 hours after the election. Regardless of what happened during this time, red flags were raised all over the place as there was a discrepancy in when results favoring Kibaki came into Nairobi. Note: it is difficult to reach certain parts of rural Kenya and could take considerable time to retrieve documentation. Many of the slowest constituencies to submit results to the ECK in Nairobi were less than 100 miles away.

  3. On Saturday and Sunday, when the majority of the results were being made public from the ECK, the process was incredibly dirty. With a lack of transparency and party agents from each of the constituencies not allowed to confirm their numbers with the ECK, there were many figures that were disregarded and unaccounted for throughout the process. There could have been a quick fix for this...prior to making figures public, simply have the head of the commission get numbers from his representatives as well as the representatives of agents from each of the parties and see if there are any discrepancies. If things don't line up-deal with it! Instead, the commission used their own numbers and disregarded the figures from ODM and PNU reps as well as other neutral representatives that were required to be present at polling stations including the several embassies, the UN and the European Union. All of these witnesses noted discrepancies in their figures in comparison to what the ECK (whose word is final) stated and voiced frustration in not being able to meet with the head of the commission to review results prior to the public dissemination of information. There were some areas for ODM and PNU constituencies whose voter turnout was higher than the number of registered voters...you do the math!

  4. The ECK confirmed the election of President Kibaki in the midst of much controversy. Prior to his announcement, members of the opposition and the EU had reported possible tampering. Both of the candidates held press conferences to say that they had been elected...an announcement that should not be made by any party, but instead by the governing body of the election process. Protests were happening all over the city already and the media made sure that the commission was aware of tampering speculation. Even the head of the ECK made announcements that he wasn't sure of the process and that some of his representatives at the polling stations could not be reached when they were late in reporting results. TV channels had also broadcasted footage of ballot boxes being broken into, some even stolen.

  5. The announcement of the election results was only carried by a state-run television station. No CNN, BBC or any of the other Kenyan TV networks were allowed to broadcast this event. The TV showed the president being sworn in less than 30 minutes after the election results. I am not even sure if the person announcing the results could get to the state house (where the president was sworn in) in less than 30 minutes. Once again, this was only televised by a state-run TV station. Less than 10 minutes after the president was sworn in, there was a ban on all live mdeia coverage. Some speculate that this was to reduce the perpetuation of violence as Raila's 4.4 million voters erupted after the announcement of the results and the swearing in ceremony. Regardless, this induced a state of panic in citizens and hindered the media's ability to communicate important information to citizens. 4 days later, we are still under a live-broadcasting ban, which has raised fear, has not allowed leaders to communicate peace to their people and has increased the number of rumors in circulation.

  6. Other than a brief New Years greeting, the “re-elected” president has not addressed the nation in the response to the elections. His acceptance speech identified the process as free and fair, flaring the tempers of the opposition and anyone that wanted Kenya to move forward in it's democratic state. His officials have released statements about the chaotic state of the country, but his leadership has been virtually non-existent, a sign of incompetence in leading a democratic society.

  7. Raila prematurely declared a rally in the city's largest park on Monday, December 31. Without consent from the police (which is a rule for all rallies in Nairobi), without any acts of diplomacy with the ECK or current government officials and playing into the emotion of his supporters, he likely escalated violence through this decision. This was later rescheduled.

  8. When Raila did go through proper channels to set up a rally to deal with election discrepancies, the government did not allow him to legally do so. I feel that if Kibaki wants to go anywhere with his upcoming term, he needs to deal with the issues of his people, be transparent in the election process and allow his people to bring concerns to a table where they can be adequately dealt with. This is set to happen tomorrow...we will see if it happens!


So this is it...Kenya took a turn for the worst in its' democratic state this week, not because of a win or a loss, nor ties to a tribe or ethnicity, but because the process to lift the voices of the Kenyan people was not heard. We hope and pray that the violence stops, that justice will prevail and ultimately that the people of this nation would not be the ones that continue to suffer from this breach of democracy.


Selected articles that depict what is going on:

Sunday, Decemeber 30; Washington Post: Incumbent Declared Winner in Kenya's Disputed Election.

Monday, December 31; International Herald Tribune: Tribal rivalry boils over after Kenyan election

Monday, December 31; Voice of America: Kenya Bans Live Media Broadcasts

Monday, December 31; BBC: Odinga Rejects Kenya Poll Result

Monday, December 31; International Herald Tribune: Politics, Tribalism Volatile Mix in Kenya

Tuesday, January 1; Bloomberg: UN Calls for Calm in Kenya; Post-Election Deaths Rise

Tuesday, January 1; Voice of America: EU Calls for Inquiry into Kenyan Presidential Results

Wednesday, January 2: The Guardian: Fiery Speaker with the Populist Touch


Note: If you are having trouble with opening the links, copy and paste the article titles in Google. Some newspaper websites require a login if you link directly.

1 comment:

Paul said...

Joel,
This is extremely helpful to understand the current situation in Kenya. And powerful to hear your first hand account. We continue to pray for Kenya and for you & Manday, Gideon and families.

Paul